What will happen if President Trump decertifies the Iran nuclear deal?

Alex Brandon  AP

If the Republican president goes ahead, that would open a 60-day window in which Congress could reimpose sanctions, a step toward an unraveling of the deal.

Trump is expected to decline this week to certify Iran's compliance in the 2015 agreement, referring it to Congress.

The Republicans were dead against the nuclear deal in the Congress in the run-up to it suggesting that the deal did not do enough to wring further concessions from Iran in terms of its support to groups opposed to USA ally Israel, its military programme, etc. Mr. Trump has always termed it "a bad deal" giving few specifics on why his administration thinks so.

Trump, who pledged during his campaign to rip up the Iran deal, has recertified it twice since taking office in January and hates having to do so.

She said that United States would lose global trust "because a deal that America voted for just two years ago in the UN Security Council with a resolution unanimously adopted, a deal that America helped to shape enormously, enormously, would be rejected by the same country".

European allies have complained that the White House has not presented a plan on how to push back Iranian influence, particularly in Syria, where the Trump administration has insisted it did not want to get involved in the civil war, preferring to focus exclusively on fighting the Islamic State. Engel, the top Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee, said unwinding the agreement would send a risky signal to allies and adversaries alike.

"I expect President Trump will not certify it", said Elizabeth Rosenberg, an Iran expert at the Center for a New American Security, a progressive think tank.

In anticipation of Trump's announcement this week, advocacy groups are beginning to mobilize in support of the agreement, and in opposition to Trump's reckless moves to undermine and dismantle it. He called Trump's move to kick the deal to Congress a "trap" and "a tactic meant to reach the president's goal of tearing the deal apart". Unilateral U.S. sanctions would entail stringent provisions applying to European Union companies that deal with Iran.

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The United States is not party to the deal, and its crude output has risen 10 percent this year to more than 9.5 million bpd. Should OPEC keep pumping at September's level, the market could move into a deficit next year, the report indicates.

This is a dumber option because it is exactly what the Obama administration wanted and what Hillary Clinton would have pressed for if she had won the election: protecting the JCPOA by dropping the prospect of new sanctions, doing away with the certification requirement and answering criticism of the deal by engaging in endless talks with Iran and European diplomats to fix the agreement. "We may have to array our forces to prepare for. calibrated strikes".

Trump has said he believes the nuclear deal is too generous toward Iran and would not stop it from trying to develop a nuclear weapon.

"Either the [nuclear agreement] will remain as-is, in its entirety, or it will no longer exist", Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said last month at the United Nations. French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed concern about Iran's ballistic missiles and the "sunset" provisions as well.

The other signatories to the JCPOA - the UK, France, Germany, Russia, China and Iran, have said it is not realistic to try to renegotiate its terms.

Even so, some experts told CNBC that decertification will undermine the global deal and encourage hardliners in Tehran to push for nuclear weapons. Second, it appears that moderate Senate Republicans will side with Democrats to block passage of any sanctions that could endanger the Iran deal.

First, Congress could vote to snap sanctions back into place, or Trump could refuse to sign the next round of waivers for sanctions.

Who says they are not holding up their end of the deal?

Why does U.S. President Donald Trump want to scrap it?

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